IF THE CAMPUS BCS CHAMPIONSHIP TOURNAMENT HAD BEEN PLAYED

Senior Analyst Mark Noe has done a masterful job of putting together a ten team playoff to settle any and all National Title debates.  I like his proposal; I really do.  But now that the bowl games have all been played and the BCS is patting itself on the back for “getting it right”, I still can’t help from wondering: did they?  Better yet, could there have been an even more interesting match-up for the crystal football?

The more I looked at Mark’s pairings, the more I started to think that there really could have been a very different outlook to the championship game.

The season may be over with, but we can still have a little fun.  Here’s a look at what might’ve been.

PLAY IN (aka “Wild Card” round)

#8 Florida vs. #9 Boise State

The Broncos looked pretty good against TCU (and Oregon in the first week), but there were some other games that were a little closer than they should have been.  Tulsa, Louisiana Tech, and Nevada were within striking distance of upsetting the best team in the WAC.

Florida was the top team in the nation right up until they dropped the SEC championship game to ‘Bama.  They had their own close calls along the road.  Tennessee was within ten points (as was South Carolina), and Arkansas came within three points of upsetting the defending National Champs.

The way I see it…

Hey, I give Boise State the benefit of the doubt as much as anyone.  I genuinely believe they deserve a lot more respect than they get when it comes time for BCS selections.  Still, this is Florida – in a national championship game (in a tournament, they’re all national championship games).  I’m no particular fan of the Gators, but that’s one stout defense they fielded this year.

I think the Bronco defense would have given Florida some fits, but they wouldn’t have stopped the Gators completely.  Tebow was on fire with a lot of motivation to go out on top in their bowl game against Cincinnati.  If he brought that same determination to this game, it would have been lights-out for Boise State.

My pick – Florida by 17 to move on.

#7 TCU vs. #10 Iowa

The Horned Frogs had a perfect season going until they met Boise State.  In fact, there were only two teams that were even close.  Clemson came within four and Air Force came within three.  Everyone else was pretty well embarrassed, including BYU.

Iowa had a perfect season going too…for nine weeks.  Ultimately, they lost to Northwestern and Ohio State.  Considering that the Buckeyes ended up as Rose Bowl champions and Northwestern ended up with an overtime loss to Auburn, neither loss is particularly damning – especially since the only quarterback with any discernable experience was out with an injury.

The way I see it…

TCU was finally exposed against Boise State, and as it happens, the very same techniques that the Broncos used to defeat the Horned Frogs were used by Iowa often throughout 2009.  They had a tremendous defense that created opportunities for an offense that needed just a little help (okay, in Iowa’s case it was a lot of help).

This game would have been one of the better ones of the entire tournament as it would have pitted two good defenses, with a little flash and bang every now and again to wake up the fans with the short attention spans.

It’s no secret that I’m a big Iowa fan.  It should also be no secret that I don’t make homer picks.  I only pick the Hawkeyes if I think they’ll really win.  This is one of those times.  I think Iowa’s defense surprises and terrorizes the Horned Frogs while their offense plays with a big chip on their shoulders.

My pick – the “Heart Attack Hawkeyes” by 10

The Quarter Final Round

#4 Oregon vs #5 Ohio State

We get the benefit of already having seen this game played.  Oregon’s offense is potent, but they rarely face a defense like the one fielded by Ohio State.

Ohio State took down the Ducks in the Rose Bowl, and I have no reason to believe that a quarter-final playoff game would have ended any differently.

#1 Alabama vs #8 Florida

The same holds true for this match as with the previous one.  We’ve seen this game and know how it ended.  Granted, that was the SEC championship game and not a bowl game, but does it really matter?  For both of these teams, the SEC championship game was virtually the same as a playoff game because the winner went on to play for the National Title while the loser had to settle for a consolation prize.

Again, this one was decided on the field, and I’m not inclined to change it.  Alabama moves on to the semi’s.

#3 Cincinnati vs. #6 Georgia Tech

This one could be pretty interesting.  On one side of the ball is the dreaded Yellow Jacket triple option.  On the other is Cincinnati’s unbeaten record.

Both teams were manhandled in their respective bowls, but that could be a little deceiving.  Cincinnati doesn’t have Iowa’s defense.  Neither does Georgia Tech have Florida’s defense.  This game would have been really exciting for the offense-minded.

Cincinnati was seriously challenged more than a couple of times throughout the regular season.  Fresno State, UConn, West Virginia, Illinois, and Pitt were all within a score of the Bearcats.  They beat them all, though, and that’s always important.

Georgia Tech was tested a few times as well, but didn’t fare quite as well.  They beat three rated opponents, but also lost to two.  So, whose offense is better?

Cincinnati has the better rated offense, but Georgia Tech has the better rated defense.

The way I see it…

I could fall back to the old argument that defenses win championship, which would give the slight edge to Georgia Tech.  However, that really only applies when the defense is good – especially when you’re facing one of the top rated offenses in the country.

I think this would have been a real shootout with GT pulling out some really pretty plays and Cincinnati answering right back with some pretty stuff of their own.  It may well have come down to whoever held the ball last.

In the end, I’ll take Cincinnati’s offense over Georgia Techs, but only by a hair.

My pick – Cincinnati by 7 in 2OT

#2 Texas vs #10 Iowa

Okay, here’s where my homerism is first really put to the test.  Can the Hawkeyes really stack up to the Longhorns with a shot at the national title on the line?

In short, yes, they really can – but it wouldn’t be easy.

Iowa was all about defense in 2009 (as they are most years), and the Longhorns may actually have played right into their hands.

We’d have to make one assumption that might make a lot of difference, and that is that Colt McCoy wouldn’t have suffered the injury he had in the National Championship game.  Injuries are definite “intangibles”, and I can’t even begin to assume that the same thing would have happened in this game.  In all likelihood, McCoy would have played the full four quarters and Iowa would have had to deal with him.

Surprisingly (for a NT contender), Texas’ offense wasn’t all that spectacular.  They were good, but rated 28^th in the nation and averaging 421.2 yards per game, they weren’t awe-inspiring.  Texas was, however, spectacular on defense, rated 3^rd in the nation and allowing only 251.9 yards per game.

Iowa was pathetic offensively, rated 89^th in the nation and averaging only 336.3 total yards per game.  Their defense was the great equalizer, rated 10^th in the nation and allowing 276.5 yards per game.

The way I see it…

There’s one other category that should be looked at, and that’s the turnover margin.  Texas wins that battle as well with a +9 versus Iowa’s +2.  Iowa’s would be a lot better if QB Ricky Stanzi weren’t so adept at throwing interceptions, but that’s the name of the game.

For most of the attention deficit nation, this game would have been a real snoozefest.  For those of us who appreciate a great defensive battle, this would have been one for the ages.

Each team would have benefitted from at least one turnover (and conversely suffered from one as well).  The advantage is firmly in the Longhorn’s favor through all the stats.

There is only one factor that could possibly change the outcome of this game – the level of the defense’s Texas has played.  It’s a weak argument, I realize, but don’t forget that Wisconsin looked fantastic until they played Ohio State and Iowa.  Penn State looked great, except when they played Ohio State and Iowa.  Both have offenses that are rated comparably to Texas’.

Looking at that measurement, there are only two teams on the Longhorn’s entire schedule that compare to Iowa defensively – Nebraska and Alabama.  They barely escaped Nebraska, and were handled well by Alabama.

Keep in mind that Texas outranked Nebraska in about every category as well.  Nebraska actually ranks lower than Iowa offensively and only slightly better than Iowa defensively.  They’re a great measuring stick for this game.

Talk about Suh all you want, Adrian Clayborn would have been just as disruptive in this game and would have had a lot of help from the linebacker corps, as well as his fellow linemen.

My pick – I’m going homer in this one and picking Iowa for the upset by 4 on a last drive stand.

Semi-Final Round

Now it’s down to #1 Alabama vs. #5 Ohio State on one side of the braket and #3 Cincinnati vs. #10 Iowa on the other side.

#3 Cincinnati vs. #10 Iowa

Could the Hawkeyes keep their upset run going?  That would depend entirely on the injuries they may have sustained against Texas.  Assuming they came away relatively unscathed, then yes, they could have.

Cincinnati was all about the offense.  Rated 67^th nationally on defense, they wouldn’t have been anything for the Hawkeyes to get too excited about.  Offensively, they were rated 11^th – which should be reason for pause – but the Hawkeyes had already gotten past one offense rated even higher (TCU in the first round).

The Bearcats are coming head-to-head with the toughest defense they’ve played all year.  Even in the playoffs, their only opponent to this point was Georgia Tech, whose defense isn’t even in the same hemisphere as Iowa’s.  They’d have to pull out some pretty terrific tricks to consistently put points on the board.

That’s the key.  As maddening as Iowa’s offense was in 2009, they were plenty capable of putting up points against mid-level defenses.  With two decent running backs, two decent receivers, and an all-star tight end, the Hawkeyes would have had plenty of tools to keep the Bearcats moving backwards.

The way I see it…

Cincinnati would have put up some points, but not nearly as many as they averaged during the regular season.  Iowa held just about everyone to under 20 points and held Georgia Tech to half their normal production.  I see the same thing happening here.

In the end, Cincinnati would have looked almost as overrated against the Hawkeyes as they did against Florida.

My pick – Iowa by 10.

#1 Alabama vs. #5 Ohio State

This would have been a great one to watch.  How would Terrelle Pryor react to a defense that doesn’t make many mistakes and plays very patient, very smart football?

Once again, this would have been more about defense than offense.  Ohio State’s offense was rated 67^th in the nation, while Alabama’s was rated 43^rd.  Defensively, though, the Buckeyes were rated 5^th in the nation versus the Tide who were rated 2^nd.

The way I see it…

Pryor did well against Iowa, Penn State, and Oregon.  None of those teams are quite as good defensively as the Tide is though.  Without last year’s cast to help him out, Pryor would have had to rely pretty heavily on his legs as well as those of Brandon Saine, to try and keep the Tide off balance.  It wouldn’t have worked.

Meanwhile, Greg McElroy and Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram would have had to pick and peck their way around the Buckeye defense.  That, they could do.  Just look at what they did to Florida’s 4^th rated defense.  It wasn’t always pretty, but it was effective enough to put up 32 points and walk away with the SEC title.

Ohio State would have given another great performance in a big game.  Unlike the Rose Bowl, however, they would have fallen short once again.  ‘Bama would have been too much to handle in the second half.

My pick – Alabama by 10

That brings us to…

National Championship Game

#1 Alabama vs. #10 Iowa

Should the championship game have come down to this:

Now we’re talking about the 43^rd rated ‘Bama offense versus the #10 rated Iowa defense and the 89^th rated Iowa offense versus the #2 rated Tide defense.

I wouldn’t completely count Iowa down and out, but pretty darn close.

The way I see it…

Iowa’s defense would keep ‘Bama working for their points much like Ohio State’s would have.  Points wouldn’t come at will, but they would come.  On the other side of the ball though, Iowa wouldn’t be so lucky.  Maybe one big play would get them a TD, but otherwise, the Hawkeyes would be reaching for field goals to try and keep their hopes alive.

As much as I would love to write up a long piece about how Iowa would hold Alabama to under 20 points while their offense kept them in the hunt – I don’t see it happening.  By halftime Alabama would have had at least 14 points (probably 7 from turnover) while Iowa would be struggling with 10 or fewer.  In the second half, Nick Saban would have made some great adjustments and Kirk Ferentz wouldn’t have had the tools to respond as effectively.

My pick – Alabama by 20

Closing it all out

Of course, looking at this, you could easily say that the only thing keeping this from looking just like the national championship actually did, is my prediction that Iowa would have beaten Texas.  That’s entirely fair.

In fact, I would come to the same conclusion.  It’s not just homerism that pushes me to pick Iowa over Texas, but had Iowa lost to the Longhorns, I don’t think Cincinnati or Georgia Tech would have fared much better.  Iowa would have been the “x-factor” on that side of the brackets.

That’s the ticket to the whole shebang.  On one side of the bracket, we see Ohio State, Alabama, and Florida – three of the four best teams in the entire tournament.  Iowa and Texas are really the only two teams on the other side of the bracket that have the talent and experience against rated opponents to stand toe-to-toe with the others.

Iowa’s defense is comparable to Nebraska’s and the Cornhuskers came oh-so-close to knocking Texas off their pedestal.  Plus, Iowa’s offense is better than Nebraska’s.  I truly think the Hawkeyes could have pulled off the upset, particularly since they played their best football when they were on the road against quality opponents.

If, indeed, that would have happened, there would have been no one else with the experience against the kind of defense Iowa brings to the table to have really knocked the Hawkeyes out of the championship game.

On the other side, there would have been some really fantastic games.  I would have loved to have seen Ohio State vs. Alabama for a shot at the title.  I still think the Tide would have won, but it would have been entertaining.  Once ‘Bama earned their way to the title game, though, neither Iowa nor Texas would have had what it takes to come home with the crystal ball.

So, the BCS can go on saying “see, we got it right”.  In the very end, merely by putting Alabama in the game, they did get it right.  But at least in a playoff system like this, we would have had some great games, and there would have been no room for doubt over who the real champion was.  More importantly, in years where the championship selection is far less clear, a tournament like this would have erased any arguments.