Why you should watch

Both teams are looking for a little extra respect.  Georgia Tech  has had a fantastic year, going 11-2 and winning the ACC championship, but was shut down by Miami (33-17) and slipped against Georgia (30-24).  Getting by Virginia Tech 28-23 helps their image a little, but honestly, they’re .500 against ranked opponents and their win wasn’t quite as impressive as their loss was telling.  Getting a win over a tough Big Ten defense could do a lot to show that this team is someone that could make even bigger waves next year.

Iowa was in the national title discussion for all of two seconds, but that’s more than they’ve had in a long, long time and ending 10-2 is actually a little disappointing after the 9-0 start they had.  With wins over Arizona (27-17), Penn State (21-10), and Wisconsin (20-10), Iowa has proven that they can beat the big boys.  Yes, they lost to Ohio State (27-24 OT), but it wasn’t as if they were blown away.  On the biggest stages this year, the Hawkeyes have held their own and finished the regular season 3-1 against ranked opponents.  Most of those were conference opponents though.  A win over Georgia Tech would prove that the Hawkeyes can hang with the tough teams around the nation, not just around the Midwest.

When Georgia Tech has the ball

QB Josh Nesbitt is quick on his feet, sharps as a tack with his decision making, and a tough enough runner to square his shoulders and get a little nasty against tacklers.  He’s just not that great when he has to throw the football.  With a 47.7 completion percentage, he’s missed more than he’s hit, but he’s also had 100 fewer attempts than his counterpart, Ricky Stanzi, with four additional games.  Nesbitt doesn’t throw for a ton of yards, averaging roughly 130 yards per game, but the offense isn’t designed around his arm anyway.

Nesbitt leads the charge on the ground, running 259 times for 991 yards and 18 touchdowns.  There are a slew of supporters in the option attack, but Jonathan Dwyer is perhaps the most dangerous.  Dwyer has carried 221 times for 1346 yards, averaging a very impressive 6.09 yards per carry and earning 14 touchdowns.

If there’s anyone more dangerous than Dwyer, it may be fellow junior Anthony Allen.  Allen has only carried 61 times, but has gained 597 yards for an astronomical 9.79 yard-per-carry average and five touchdowns.  The Nesbitt/Dwyer/Allen trio gives this offense the depth that makes it so hard to defend, and they’re still not all that Tech has to offer.  There are six individuals who are averaging more than five yards per carry (with more than 10 carries) on the Yellow Jacket roster.

Look for Tech to use all available options (no pun intended) in this match.  Not only because this is a bowl game and this is their chance to showcase all of their talent, but also because…

On the other side of the ball, Iowa represents the toughest all around team Georgia Tech has faced all season.  The Hawkeyes are not only the highest ranked (10^th), but have the highest rated defense (also 10^th).

Linebackers Pat Angerer, A.J. Edds, and Jeremiah Hunter are quicker than most stereotypical Big Ten linebackers, are smart, well disciplined, and are coached by one of the best defensive minds in college football -  Norm Parker.  This trio flies to the ball and don’t often miss tackles.  They’ll be the key to slowing down the option.

Nesbitt can’t forget DE Adrian Clayborn, though.  Clayborn is very quick in his own right and can chase down a play on the opposite side of the field as if he were a linebacker, not an end.  The rest of the defensive line is pretty solid as well.  DE Broderick Binns isn’t the best pass rusher in the world, but he’s quick and good at sniffing out the ball.  Tackles Christian Ballard and Karl Klug take good care of the center of the line and will free up the linebackers to move around.

This defense will give up yards, but they’ve only allowed eight rushing touchdowns all year (8^th nationally).  Against the run, they’ll bend a little, but won’t break easily, especially in the redzone.

When Iowa has the ball

QB Ricky Stanzi is back, and what that means to the Hawkeyes is immeasurable.  Funny enough, he’s not a great quarterback.  He’s accurate enough, completing 56% of his passes, but has shown poor judgment, throwing 14 interceptions to his 15 touchdowns.  He’s not particularly quick on his feet and he doesn’t have the kind of arm to make anyone sit up and take notice.  What Ricky Stanzi brings to the table for the Hawkeyes is a John Elway-ish leadership that elevates his and his players performance.

Stanzi’s backup, freshman James Vandenberg, filled in nicely while Stanzi was nursing a high ankle sprain, but he didn’t do anything that threatened Stanzi’s status as a starter either.  He completed just 48.3% of his passes and threw only two touchdowns to five interceptions.  What he did do, though, was lead Iowa to a very good showing against Ohio State’s tough defense, completing 60.6% of his passes and getting the Hawkeyes into the endzone twice, despite three interceptions also thrown.

Running the football has been a staple at Iowa forever, and this year it’s been a struggle.  Would-be starter Jewel Hampton tore an ACL in the preseason, leaving the run game in two freshmen’s hands.  Redshirt freshman Adam Robinson stepped in and has done fairly well, rushing for 775 yards on 167 carries (4.64 average).  Assisting him – in fact taking over when Robinson suffered an ankle sprain – is true freshman Brandon Wegher.  Wegher has added 528 yards on 146 carries, averaging only 3.62 yards per carry.  The two have combined for 12 rushing touchdowns.

In a nutshell, Iowa’s offense is hit-or-miss, with more misses than hits.  The run game is largely ineffective, doing just enough to take a little pressure off of Stanzi, and the pass attack is inconsistent, coming up big one moment, then looking horrible the next.  Iowa has gotten to their lofty status by playing sound defense and taking advantage of the opportunities afforded them by that defense.

Look for Iowa to play straight-forward football.  They’ll use both Robinson and Wegher in tandem to try and establish the run.  Stanzi will want to use TE Tony Moeaki often in the pass game, but look for him to zone in on QB-turned-WR Marvin McNutt on slants and to go to Derrell Johnson-Koulianos on the longer passes.

On the other side of the ball, Georgia Tech brings the 52^nd rated total defense to the field.  DE Derrick Morgan can be a game-changer with the 12.5 sacks he’s accumulated this year. LB Brad Jefferson will play a big part too, with his eight tackles for loss.  Finally, safety Morgan Burnett is the man Ricky Stanzi will need to keep an eye on in the secondary.  Burnett has four interceptions, 77 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, and four broken passes this year.  While Morgan and Jefferson can completely shut down the run game, Burnett can make Stanzi look the fool if/when he does get the ball off.

How can Georgia Tech win? (aka Keys to their Game)

Time for a little BCS-throwback to my regular season previews.

The Yellow Jackets have to expect two things: 1) Iowa’s defense will be faster than expected and will be technically sound, and 2) the Hawkeye offense will flounder often, but get white hot when it counts.  In other words, Georgia Tech is going to have to play every single down as if the game depends on it, because it very well may.

Iowa is fairly adept at creating turnovers (29 on the year, 16^th in the nation) and they’ll hound whoever holds the ball with absolute relentlessness.  The Yellow Jackets are going to have to constantly think about protecting the football, whether running from the option or throwing.  In fact, they’ll want to throw as little as possible because Iowa is 5^th in the nation with 20 interceptions gained.

Georgia Tech will want to dig a little deeper into their bag of tricks every now and again to keep the Hawkeye defense off balance.  They won’t shed their assignments often, so throw something at them they’re not expecting and hope they bite.

Lastly, the defense has to step up big.  Obviously, Iowa’s offense isn’t anything to be afraid of, but shutting them down early and often will wear that fearsome defense down and create big opportunities to run away with the contest.

How can Iowa win?

The offense has to do what it hasn’t done much all year – change things up.  Offensive Coordinator Ken O’Keefe is good at teaching his boys how to play football, but he’s very predictable.  You can bet that Tech knows every play Iowa has run all year long intimately – because they use so few different plays.  It’s time for O’Keefe to rewrite the Iowa playbook and come up with something a little different.  Iowa loves to use the play-action pass, but when you use it as much as Iowa does, it becomes predictable too.  Iowa needs to pass when they’d normally run and run when they’d normally pass.

Ricky Stanzi has to be smarter than the average bear.  Georgia Tech may not be known for its defense, but that doesn’t mean they’re bad at it.  The Hawkeye defense will have their hands full and the last thing they need is for Stanzi to come out and throw a slew of interceptions.  If the throw isn’t there, he needs to just throw it away and live to fight another day.

Lastly, Iowa has to win the turnover battle.  With an offense that will struggle to put points on the board, Iowa needs extra opportunities to get it done.  If they lose the turnover battle, they lose the game.  It’s probably just that simple.

Speaking of Iowa’s defense, I thought it was funny when Iowa’s Head Coach Kirk Ferentz said “I can’t imagine getting ready for them in a normal week”.  What wasn’t said was what Defensive Coordinator Norm Parker thought about it.

Intangibles

Ricky Stanzi.  He’s a mystery wrapped in an enigma sprinkled with one part brilliance and one part idiocy.

Stanzi struggles to throw the ball, yet his late drives and cool demeanor have lofted Iowa to victories over Michigan, Michigan State, and Indiana.  He skillfully led the Hawkeyes to victories over Arizona, Penn State and Wisconsin – often making it look easy, while at other times making it look like a miracle.

Ricky isn’t a threat to run the football, yet when he starts to scramble he actually becomes a better passer, making better decisions and putting a beautiful touch on the ball.  He doesn’t have a terrific arm, yet he’s burned some pretty solid defenses with long strikes.

The two most telling examples of Stanzi’s role in Iowa can be found in the Michigan State and Northwestern games.  Against the Spartans, the Hawkeyes were down 13-8 with only a minute to go in the game.  Stanzi looked as calm as if it were the second drive of the game as he led Iowa into the redzone, ran three plays in less than ten seconds, and delivered the winning strike to Marvin McNutt as the clock struck triple-zeroes.  He never even flinched.

Against Northwestern, Stanzi had the Hawkeyes rolling, throwing for 134 yards and a touchdown in barely a quarter of play.  After sustaining an ankle sprain that took him out of the game, Iowa squandered a ten point lead and ultimately lost 17-10.  The mojo had left the game the second Stanzi stepped off the field and it could be felt even through the television screen.  He’s the kind of leader that, despite not being all that good technically, can make his players, coaches, and fans believe in the Hawkeyes and do what most would say can’t be done.  With Stanzi under center, you can never count the Hawkeyes out, even if they’re getting beat convincingly (Iowa trailed Indiana 21-7 at the half and 24-14 going into the fourth, but scored 28 unanswered points in the fourth to win 42-24).

What will happen

This is poised to be one of the great bowls of the season.  Georgia Tech’s offense will put together some pretty exciting plays and will undoubtedly make Iowa work like dogs to slow them down.  But before you begin thinking that Tech’s offense is too much for a stodgy Big Ten team to handle consider this:  Iowa’s defense was tailor made for just this kind of game.

The Hawkeye defenders will stay in their lanes and cover their assignments all day long.  They won’t often bite on gimmickry or over-pursue the play.  They’ll stay right where they need to be and when the ball carrier comes around; they’ll lay him out flat.  That’s what they do.  They’re worst when they have to face a team that can both run and pass and that’s not Georgia Tech.

Iowa’s offense will sputter and probably give the ball away much more than they should and place the game in its defense’s hands.  They will, however, put together a couple of sustained drives and will come up with a couple of big tosses that move the chain quickly.  It’ll look pretty ugly (as it usually does) when Iowa has the football, but it’ll take two, maybe three drives that really click to pull the Hawkeyes out front and allow the defense to do its thing.  Ricky Stanzi will be the difference-maker, keeping his struggling offense calm, cool and focused enough to deliver the death blow.

Look for Georgia Tech to be held under 200 yard rushing for only the third time all season and for Iowa to force them into passing situations that they don’t like.  As the saying goes, “Offense wins games, but defense wins championships.”  Iowa’s defense will win them the Orange Bowl championship.

My Pick: Iowa